Sunday, January 6, 2008
HDFC Bank top loser on the Nifty
HDFC Bank is the top loser on the Nifty. At 10:09 am, the share was quoting at Rs 1,644, down Rs 52.4, or 3.09%. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 1,651 and an intraday low of Rs 1,612.30. It was trading with volumes of 44,370 shares. On Friday the share closed up at Rs 1,696.40.
Every fall is an opportunity to buy: Manghnani
Speaking to CNCB-TV18, Anil Manghnani of Modern Shares & Stock Brokers said it’s a million dollar question as to how long our markets can continue to outperform despite negative global cues. Manghnani said it’s nerve wrecking as to how the US market is continuously slipping. However, he added, every fall is an opportunity to buy on the long side.
According to Manghnani, the midcaps are looking stronger than the largecaps. He added that with the negative global cues, those midcaps which fell on Friday would continue to slide but would make up mid-week.
According to Manghnani, the midcaps are looking stronger than the largecaps. He added that with the negative global cues, those midcaps which fell on Friday would continue to slide but would make up mid-week.
Tata Steel gears up for another century
100 seems the magical figure for Tata Steel this year. As India's oldest steel company completes 100 years, it is all set to cross the magical figure of Rs 100 thousand crore in turnover this year. CNBC-TV18’s Kenan Machado and Krupali Pandit Yadav report, that Tata Steel won't just stop there.
Life seems to have come full circle for Tata Steel. Having started operations in 1907, India's largest private steel maker sees its turnover for fiscal 2008 slightly more than Rs 100,000 crore or nearly USD 25 billion. And that's thanks to its USD 12.9 billion acquisition of Corus early last year.
B Muthuraman, MD, Tata Steel said, “The Corus turnover is USD 18 billion and Tata Steel turnover is about USD 6 billion, which is USD 24 billion. Between Natsteel Asia and Tata Steel Thailand it’s more than a billion and a half.”
But age hasn't seemed to have slowed down the steel giant. Having had to move the setting up of a new 6 million tonne steel plant within Orissa to Kalinganagar, from Gopalpur, Tata Steel has turned a roadblock into an opportunity. It plans to set up a new 150,000 tonne colour coated galvanizing plant in Gopalpur with an investment of Rs 250 crore rupees. And 3,200 acres of land acquired for the original steel plant there won't be wasted either.
“As you know, Gopalpur is SEZ land and we are looking for partners who will come and implement it,” Muthuraman said.
It is also getting a fresh lease of life from the beleaguered Chattisgarh and Jharkhand projects. While work on the Chhattisgarh project will start this year and be commissioned four years later, work on the new 12 million tonne project in Jharkhand will start in 2009 and will be commissioned in 2013. That, it seems, may be enough tonic for Tata Steel to face another century.
Life seems to have come full circle for Tata Steel. Having started operations in 1907, India's largest private steel maker sees its turnover for fiscal 2008 slightly more than Rs 100,000 crore or nearly USD 25 billion. And that's thanks to its USD 12.9 billion acquisition of Corus early last year.
B Muthuraman, MD, Tata Steel said, “The Corus turnover is USD 18 billion and Tata Steel turnover is about USD 6 billion, which is USD 24 billion. Between Natsteel Asia and Tata Steel Thailand it’s more than a billion and a half.”
But age hasn't seemed to have slowed down the steel giant. Having had to move the setting up of a new 6 million tonne steel plant within Orissa to Kalinganagar, from Gopalpur, Tata Steel has turned a roadblock into an opportunity. It plans to set up a new 150,000 tonne colour coated galvanizing plant in Gopalpur with an investment of Rs 250 crore rupees. And 3,200 acres of land acquired for the original steel plant there won't be wasted either.
“As you know, Gopalpur is SEZ land and we are looking for partners who will come and implement it,” Muthuraman said.
It is also getting a fresh lease of life from the beleaguered Chattisgarh and Jharkhand projects. While work on the Chhattisgarh project will start this year and be commissioned four years later, work on the new 12 million tonne project in Jharkhand will start in 2009 and will be commissioned in 2013. That, it seems, may be enough tonic for Tata Steel to face another century.
Hope of 'friendly Budget' may see mkts do well: Centrum Cap
Devesh Kumar, MD of Centrum Capital said two-wheelers will do well, though, passenger cars are under pressure, but HCVs will perform well. He told CNBC-TV18 that media may see a positive surprise, and he will look at stocks that have not participated yet.
He expects the worst to be over for sugar, and sugar may be a contrarian call.
In anticipation of a 'friendly Budget', he expects market to do well, both midcap and frontline stocks. Interest rates will drop around 100-200 bps from here, he said.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Devesh Kumar:
Q: What do you think, local momentum will continue to overwhelm and ignore any negative global cues for the next few weeks?
A: I agree with you that global situation is looking good, and if you look at the macro environment, growth momentum continues. With interest rates there is a speculation whether it will come down or not and the next four-eight weeks will see some softening taking place in interest rates environment itself. So India is looking different from the global dynamics where indicators are not that good.
Q: So you think it’s a fair expectation that prices will be at higher levels by the time the union budget is announced this time?
A: Preceding budget, the Finance Minister is saying that tax collection is very good and there could be some tax relief also in the budget and he is presenting the budget from a position of his strength at a time where elections are two-years away. It will be a friendly budget and it may generate a good feel good factor. So in anticipation of that, market may do well and both midcap and headline stocks.
Q: What is it that you expect to see from rates, do you expect them to plateau out for the rest of this year or show a definite downward tick? How would you approach the rate sensitives then?
A: Interest rates will drop from here and around 100-200 basis points looks very likely. So I will expect this to pan out over the next two months and that will set the pace for the rest of the year. This will boost all consumer demand and consumer-related segments; as far as large capital projects are concerned, they have not been getting affected by interest rates to that extent because they had been using innovative means of finance; headline rates were less, but I feel that consumer demand and other segments will get a boost from these rate cut announcement, this will be positive.
He expects the worst to be over for sugar, and sugar may be a contrarian call.
In anticipation of a 'friendly Budget', he expects market to do well, both midcap and frontline stocks. Interest rates will drop around 100-200 bps from here, he said.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Devesh Kumar:
Q: What do you think, local momentum will continue to overwhelm and ignore any negative global cues for the next few weeks?
A: I agree with you that global situation is looking good, and if you look at the macro environment, growth momentum continues. With interest rates there is a speculation whether it will come down or not and the next four-eight weeks will see some softening taking place in interest rates environment itself. So India is looking different from the global dynamics where indicators are not that good.
Q: So you think it’s a fair expectation that prices will be at higher levels by the time the union budget is announced this time?
A: Preceding budget, the Finance Minister is saying that tax collection is very good and there could be some tax relief also in the budget and he is presenting the budget from a position of his strength at a time where elections are two-years away. It will be a friendly budget and it may generate a good feel good factor. So in anticipation of that, market may do well and both midcap and headline stocks.
Q: What is it that you expect to see from rates, do you expect them to plateau out for the rest of this year or show a definite downward tick? How would you approach the rate sensitives then?
A: Interest rates will drop from here and around 100-200 basis points looks very likely. So I will expect this to pan out over the next two months and that will set the pace for the rest of the year. This will boost all consumer demand and consumer-related segments; as far as large capital projects are concerned, they have not been getting affected by interest rates to that extent because they had been using innovative means of finance; headline rates were less, but I feel that consumer demand and other segments will get a boost from these rate cut announcement, this will be positive.
India in the middle of an economic slowdown: Experts
The markets had a good Friday to end the week with. Largecaps were broadly rangebound for the first half of this week. But they broke out or seemed to break out on Friday led by all the big boys such as Reliance, ONGC, Hindustan Unilever, including many of the power stocks, oil and gas stocks looked very smart. Other heavyweights like ICICI, Reliance Petroleum, Reliance Comm, all seemed to break out on Friday.
So, the first half of the week and indeed the last few weeks have belonged to midcaps. They have squarely outperformed their largecap peers. But it seems that as the New Year opens up and the institutions get back to work, largecaps are getting back into the frame. Of course this week will also go down as an important week because crude oil touched USD 100 a barrel for the first time in its trading history.
So how is the first quarter of 2008 looking as we enter earnings season?In an exclusive interview to CNBC-T18, Narayan Ramachandran, MD, Morgan Stanley Investment Managers India, said we are in the midst of a global slowdown in the US, Europe, Japan, and China. "China wants to slow the growth down in order to drive down inflation. Some of us may not be aware that even India is in a midst of a modest slowdown."His best bets sectorally for 2008 were capital goods, select banks and the IT sector, which he felt offered good value.
Prashant Jain of HDFC AMC said the market looks a bit stretched. "Average P/E of the markets is around 20 times. In this case, the average is hiding more than what it is revealing. There is one market, which appears to be pretty expensive, where there are a lot of built-in hopes for future growth, current cash flows are low, there is a lot of momentum and a lot of supply of new stock also. This is the expensive part of the market in my opinion."
He was bullish on the FMCG sector saying the the space offered reasonable scope for returns and had fewer risks.Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Narayan Ramachandran and Prashant Jain:Q: What is your gut feeling of the first quarter of 2008? Do you think we will have a good time in the first bit of the year?
Ramachandran: I hope not, because I really want to see the markets go up not just for a quarter, but for a year or two. And I think that can only happen if there is a little sort of disciplining after the year-end party as it were in the first quarter. So the way the first week looks, it looks just fine. But my view is that, it shouldn’t go okay for a few months or 2-3 months. But thereafter, emerging markets and in particular, India as a case in point, should be able to do better. But for the moment that view doesn’t seem to be right.
Q: How are you feeling entering this earning season? From a valuation and fundamental perspective, can you justify more upside in the near term?
Jain: I think this market is quite a peculiar market in my opinion. The market’s average P/E is around 20 times. But in this case, the average is hiding more than what it is revealing. I see two distinct parts in this market. There is one market, which appears to be pretty expensive, where there are a lot of built-in hopes for future growth, current cash flows are low and there is a lot of momentum and a lot of supply of new stock also. This is the expensive part of the market in my opinion.
Then there is the other part of the market where the valuations are on your side. But there is no momentum in the marketplace and there is no supply of stock either. So there is no newsflow, no momentum. But valuations, free-cash flows are on your side.
So, I think the former bit of the market to my mind looks a bit stretched somewhat and if you take a medium to long-term view. The second bit holds more promise for returns over the medium to long term.
Q: From a global prospective, or an emerging market prospective, how is the first quarter looking to you, do you thin there is a good chance that we will start the year well, given a liquidity parameters or is it looking like global factors might peg us back?
Ramachandran: There is nothing fundamentally wrong with emerging markets. It is really only a question of collateral damage and so far the collateral damage in emerging markets, save for a brief period in November has been light and that’s what I think should intensify a little bit in the first quarter because we are in the midst of a global slowdown in the US, certainly in Europe and Japan, and now in China of its own volition because China wants to slow the growth down in order to drive down inflation. Some of us may not be aware that even India is in a midst of a modest slowdown.
So, there is definitely a slowdown pretty much across the world. And I just think that even though equities are not in the epicenter of the crisis that began in the middle of last year in the mortgage market in the US, I think equities have been taking it just a little too easy in the context of that crisis. Now there is nothing fundamentally wrong as I said but the collateral damage hasn’t occurred to me in such a way that we can build a base and go forward. So I expect that co-lateral damage to take place sometimes in the next few months, which certainly spans through the first quarter of this year.
Q: You spoke about momentum, how have you observed from your perch the kind of midcap-out performance and the retail participations that you have witnessed in the last 2-3 months and the extent to which midcaps have outperformed their largecap peers?
Jain: I think that was quite all right because mid-caps were trading at significant discounts to the largecaps particularly the index heavyweights. And it is obvious the case that some midcaps that may be weaker may also go up. But by and large I think what has happened in the midcap space at least in the quality stocks, it is justifiable.
So, the first half of the week and indeed the last few weeks have belonged to midcaps. They have squarely outperformed their largecap peers. But it seems that as the New Year opens up and the institutions get back to work, largecaps are getting back into the frame. Of course this week will also go down as an important week because crude oil touched USD 100 a barrel for the first time in its trading history.
So how is the first quarter of 2008 looking as we enter earnings season?In an exclusive interview to CNBC-T18, Narayan Ramachandran, MD, Morgan Stanley Investment Managers India, said we are in the midst of a global slowdown in the US, Europe, Japan, and China. "China wants to slow the growth down in order to drive down inflation. Some of us may not be aware that even India is in a midst of a modest slowdown."His best bets sectorally for 2008 were capital goods, select banks and the IT sector, which he felt offered good value.
Prashant Jain of HDFC AMC said the market looks a bit stretched. "Average P/E of the markets is around 20 times. In this case, the average is hiding more than what it is revealing. There is one market, which appears to be pretty expensive, where there are a lot of built-in hopes for future growth, current cash flows are low, there is a lot of momentum and a lot of supply of new stock also. This is the expensive part of the market in my opinion."
He was bullish on the FMCG sector saying the the space offered reasonable scope for returns and had fewer risks.Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Narayan Ramachandran and Prashant Jain:Q: What is your gut feeling of the first quarter of 2008? Do you think we will have a good time in the first bit of the year?
Ramachandran: I hope not, because I really want to see the markets go up not just for a quarter, but for a year or two. And I think that can only happen if there is a little sort of disciplining after the year-end party as it were in the first quarter. So the way the first week looks, it looks just fine. But my view is that, it shouldn’t go okay for a few months or 2-3 months. But thereafter, emerging markets and in particular, India as a case in point, should be able to do better. But for the moment that view doesn’t seem to be right.
Q: How are you feeling entering this earning season? From a valuation and fundamental perspective, can you justify more upside in the near term?
Jain: I think this market is quite a peculiar market in my opinion. The market’s average P/E is around 20 times. But in this case, the average is hiding more than what it is revealing. I see two distinct parts in this market. There is one market, which appears to be pretty expensive, where there are a lot of built-in hopes for future growth, current cash flows are low and there is a lot of momentum and a lot of supply of new stock also. This is the expensive part of the market in my opinion.
Then there is the other part of the market where the valuations are on your side. But there is no momentum in the marketplace and there is no supply of stock either. So there is no newsflow, no momentum. But valuations, free-cash flows are on your side.
So, I think the former bit of the market to my mind looks a bit stretched somewhat and if you take a medium to long-term view. The second bit holds more promise for returns over the medium to long term.
Q: From a global prospective, or an emerging market prospective, how is the first quarter looking to you, do you thin there is a good chance that we will start the year well, given a liquidity parameters or is it looking like global factors might peg us back?
Ramachandran: There is nothing fundamentally wrong with emerging markets. It is really only a question of collateral damage and so far the collateral damage in emerging markets, save for a brief period in November has been light and that’s what I think should intensify a little bit in the first quarter because we are in the midst of a global slowdown in the US, certainly in Europe and Japan, and now in China of its own volition because China wants to slow the growth down in order to drive down inflation. Some of us may not be aware that even India is in a midst of a modest slowdown.
So, there is definitely a slowdown pretty much across the world. And I just think that even though equities are not in the epicenter of the crisis that began in the middle of last year in the mortgage market in the US, I think equities have been taking it just a little too easy in the context of that crisis. Now there is nothing fundamentally wrong as I said but the collateral damage hasn’t occurred to me in such a way that we can build a base and go forward. So I expect that co-lateral damage to take place sometimes in the next few months, which certainly spans through the first quarter of this year.
Q: You spoke about momentum, how have you observed from your perch the kind of midcap-out performance and the retail participations that you have witnessed in the last 2-3 months and the extent to which midcaps have outperformed their largecap peers?
Jain: I think that was quite all right because mid-caps were trading at significant discounts to the largecaps particularly the index heavyweights. And it is obvious the case that some midcaps that may be weaker may also go up. But by and large I think what has happened in the midcap space at least in the quality stocks, it is justifiable.
Mkts trading with modest cut; cap good, oil stocks up
The markets have gained some points and recovered from the morning lows on account of some buying witnessed in the midcap and smallcap spaces. IT, banking, metal and pharma stocks were still trading with deep cut; however capital goods, consumer durables and oil & gas stocks were in focus.
The market breadth was positive with over 600 stocks on the advancing side on NSE and about 530 stocks on the decline side. Volume so far has been good; over 23 thousand crore worth of trade has taken place on BSE, NSE cash market and F&O.
At 10.32 hrs IST, the Sensex is down 61.53 points or 0.30% at 20625.36, and the Nifty down 30.50 points or 0.49% at 6243.80. About 1769 shares have advanced, 1125 shares declined, and 48 shares are unchanged.
Top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Comm at Rs 776 up 2.10%, Reliance Energy at Rs 2,542 up 1.26% and Tata Steel at Rs 941 up 1.17%.
Top losers on the Sensex were HDFC Bank at Rs 1,649 down 2.85%, Wipro at Rs 485.30 down 2.32% and Infosys at Rs 1,663 down 1.88%.
RNRL, RPL, Hindustan Motors were the most active stocks in todays trade.
Mkts open in red on weak global cues
The markets opened on weak note today taking cues from the global markets. Huge selling pressure was seen across the sectors led by the technology, pharma and banking.
At 9:56 am, Sensex was down 169.10 points at 20517.19 and Nifty was down 52.35 at 6221.95. Major losers in the opening trade were Rel Petroleum, ABB, GAIL, BPCL, PNB, ICICI bank, HDFC Bank, VSNL, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Infosys and TCS and Wipro.
Asian markets were tumble today. Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 2.62%o r 720.60 points at 26,799.09. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted tumbled 3.29% or 270.19 points at 7,950.91. Japan's Nikkei slipped 1% or 147.29 points at 14,544.12. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 2.33% or 80.14 points at 3,357.65. South Korea's Seoul Composite was down 1.90% or 35.46 points at 1,828.44.
US markets: The US markets tumbled after the government reported lower than expected job growth in December. The Dow tumbled 256.54 points, or 1.96%, to 12,800.18, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 35.53 points, or 2.46%, to 1,411.63.The Nasdaq plunged 98.03 points, or 3.77%, to 2,504.65
The market breadth was positive with over 600 stocks on the advancing side on NSE and about 530 stocks on the decline side. Volume so far has been good; over 23 thousand crore worth of trade has taken place on BSE, NSE cash market and F&O.
At 10.32 hrs IST, the Sensex is down 61.53 points or 0.30% at 20625.36, and the Nifty down 30.50 points or 0.49% at 6243.80. About 1769 shares have advanced, 1125 shares declined, and 48 shares are unchanged.
Top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Comm at Rs 776 up 2.10%, Reliance Energy at Rs 2,542 up 1.26% and Tata Steel at Rs 941 up 1.17%.
Top losers on the Sensex were HDFC Bank at Rs 1,649 down 2.85%, Wipro at Rs 485.30 down 2.32% and Infosys at Rs 1,663 down 1.88%.
RNRL, RPL, Hindustan Motors were the most active stocks in todays trade.
Mkts open in red on weak global cues
The markets opened on weak note today taking cues from the global markets. Huge selling pressure was seen across the sectors led by the technology, pharma and banking.
At 9:56 am, Sensex was down 169.10 points at 20517.19 and Nifty was down 52.35 at 6221.95. Major losers in the opening trade were Rel Petroleum, ABB, GAIL, BPCL, PNB, ICICI bank, HDFC Bank, VSNL, Bharti Airtel, BHEL, Infosys and TCS and Wipro.
Asian markets were tumble today. Hong Kong's Hang Seng plunged 2.62%o r 720.60 points at 26,799.09. Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted tumbled 3.29% or 270.19 points at 7,950.91. Japan's Nikkei slipped 1% or 147.29 points at 14,544.12. Singapore's Straits Times dropped 2.33% or 80.14 points at 3,357.65. South Korea's Seoul Composite was down 1.90% or 35.46 points at 1,828.44.
US markets: The US markets tumbled after the government reported lower than expected job growth in December. The Dow tumbled 256.54 points, or 1.96%, to 12,800.18, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 35.53 points, or 2.46%, to 1,411.63.The Nasdaq plunged 98.03 points, or 3.77%, to 2,504.65
Mkts recover from lows; bank, oil, cap goods strong
The markets have recovered from morning lows and Sensex have pulled back in green on the back of heavy buying coming in banking, FMCG, sugar, and oil & gas stocks. However, IT, metal and IT stocks were still in red.
Good amount of buying were witnessed in the smallcap and midcap spaces. Volume so far has been good and the market breadth has improved further with over 700 stocks on the advancing side on NSE and nearly 500 stocks on the downside.
At 11.19 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 16.61 points or 0.08% at 20703.50, and the Nifty down 28.35 points or 0.45% at 6245.95. About 1820 shares have advanced, 1085 shares declined, and 38 shares are unchanged.
Top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Energy at Rs 2,560 up 1.98%, Reliance Comm at Rs 774.90 up 1.95% and Tata Motors at Rs 798 up 1.75%.
Top losers on the Sensex at Wipro at Rs 480.90 down 3.21%, Infosys at Rs 1,653 down 2.47% and TCS at Rs 982 down 2.3%.
RNRL, RPL, Hind Motors, ICICI bank were some of the most active stocks on the bourses today.
Good amount of buying were witnessed in the smallcap and midcap spaces. Volume so far has been good and the market breadth has improved further with over 700 stocks on the advancing side on NSE and nearly 500 stocks on the downside.
At 11.19 hrs IST, the Sensex is up 16.61 points or 0.08% at 20703.50, and the Nifty down 28.35 points or 0.45% at 6245.95. About 1820 shares have advanced, 1085 shares declined, and 38 shares are unchanged.
Top gainers on the Sensex were Reliance Energy at Rs 2,560 up 1.98%, Reliance Comm at Rs 774.90 up 1.95% and Tata Motors at Rs 798 up 1.75%.
Top losers on the Sensex at Wipro at Rs 480.90 down 3.21%, Infosys at Rs 1,653 down 2.47% and TCS at Rs 982 down 2.3%.
RNRL, RPL, Hind Motors, ICICI bank were some of the most active stocks on the bourses today.
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